BERNARD'S BLOG

My Southall and Sedgefield Predictions

2007-07-17T21:38:00.000+01:00

Labour will hold both seats.
Sedgefield easily with about 46% of the vote to the Lib Dems 25/27% and the Tories 18-19%
If there's a tactical collapse in the Tory vote it might be closer.

Ealing Southall is thought to be close, but the opposition is divided.
Labour may need only 30-32% to hold it. 37% is mentioned
Tony Lit for the Conservatives could up their share to perhaps 28% which may be enough to come second.
The Lib Dem vote appears to be holding up, but they could poll 26-27% -above their General Election share -but narrowly slip to third.
But if things are that close there's a chance of an upset, if Labour fails to get its core vote out.
It's difficult to think in terms of a Labour majority above 2000. Perhaps 850-1400.
Don't ignore the Greens either - the only female candidate.

Do Residents Councillors have a future in local politics?

2007-07-10T22:41:00.001+01:00

The nearby Surrey Councils in Elmbridge and Epsom&Ewell have a long tradition of non-party councillors sponsored by Residents Associations and local amenity societies. But this seems to be on the wain. Elmbridge has moved steadily towards Tory overall control in the past 2 elections. A further test of support comes in a by-election in Walton Ambleside ward on 9 August following resignation of the surprise Conservative winner in 2006, by most accounts a 'paper' candidate who didn't expect to win.

Can Labour hold Ealing Southall ?

2007-07-10T22:31:00.000+01:00

Is 'Cameron Conservative' Tony Lit a shoe-in for the by-election in this unique west London seat?

Does Labour's veteran Virendra Sharma look like a winner following his controversial selection and defection of rivals for Labour's nomination?

Will Lib Dem Nigel Bakhai come through the middle?