Tuesday, 17 July 2007

My Southall and Sedgefield Predictions

Labour will hold both seats.
Sedgefield easily with about 46% of the vote to the Lib Dems 25/27% and the Tories 18-19%
If there's a tactical collapse in the Tory vote it might be closer.

Ealing Southall is thought to be close, but the opposition is divided.
Labour may need only 30-32% to hold it. 37% is mentioned
Tony Lit for the Conservatives could up their share to perhaps 28% which may be enough to come second.
The Lib Dem vote appears to be holding up, but they could poll 26-27% -above their General Election share -but narrowly slip to third.
But if things are that close there's a chance of an upset, if Labour fails to get its core vote out.
It's difficult to think in terms of a Labour majority above 2000. Perhaps 850-1400.
Don't ignore the Greens either - the only female candidate.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Is this UK